South East Queensland is set to benefit by an injection of over $8 billion in asset transfers from other states. According to a research note issued to Macquarie Bank customers, NSW is in the firing line more than any other Australian State and is expected to lose up to $7.3 billion, as NSW residents flee the highest residential house prices seen across the nation.
The Next ‘Great Wave’ of Interstate Migrants Moving to QLD
Macquarie has likened the expected migrations as the next “Great Wave” of interstate population transfers. Previous northerly population migrations occurred in the mid-80’s and early to mid-2000’s, as Sydney property prices had peaked after the 2000 Olympic Games fuelled a property boom.
The difference this time around is that NSW is expected to suffer a net migration loss to Queensland. In the 2000’s this didn’t happen because overseas migrants to NSW more than made up for citizens lost to Queensland.
Brisbane Deputy Mayor: Housing Affordability is Critical
Brisbane’s Deputy Mayor Adrian Schrinner, speaking with The Courier Mail, says that “the housing affordability is critical.” He sees affordable housing as being a big attractor for interstate migrants, especially those from Sydney who are facing some of the steepest increases in housing prices for a generation. Schrinner acknowledges, however, that simply providing cheaper housing won’t immediately see results.
“People won’t move here unless there are jobs,” says Schrinner. “That has been the missing piece of the puzzle. If we can guarantee the jobs , then there will be a boom like you’ve never seen before.”
Chris Mountford, Property Council Queensland’s executive director said that Sydney-siders had been investing their money in Queensland for a long time.
“Now,” he said, “we want them and their families to move to Queensland as well as their money.”
“We want to make sure affordability remains our competitive advantage going forward. And that’s not just housing affordability,” says Mountford. “Firms are finding it hard to afford industrial land they can operate out of in Sydney and that’s an opportunity for Brisbane.”
Greater Brisbane’s Strategic Advantage Over Sydney
Tom Seymour from professional services firm PwC sees Greater Brisbane as having a “massive strategic advantage” over southern states, especially NSW where home prices have increased sharply. PwC research data, he says, reveals that a mortgage on a median-priced Brisbane property is around 3.7 times average household income. That compares favourably with Melbourne or Sydney where it is more like 8 or 9 times average household income.
Queensland Property Next to Boom
Matt Ivers, from Sydney-based investment advisory business Vision Property & Finance, says he has begun to see a shift and people are realising the price differential between Sydney and South-East Queensland means they can now afford to get into the property market.
“I’ve been calling the top of the market in Sydney for a while now. Low interest rates have meant Sydney is taking its time to unwind; however, clients are now realising Brisbane has better opportunities. Traditionally, when Sydney’s property market comes off its peak Brisbane is getting ready to warm up.”
Ivers is not surprised things are starting to heat-up in South-East Queensland as in the past it has been the obvious choice for NSW households to move when the residential property market in Sydney loses its value advantage. Once in a generation, he says, all of the forces of influence combine and a large number of NSW residents pack-up and head to Queensland.
“The movement north will be more pronounced this time around simply because of the huge affordability gap between Sydney and Brisbane.”
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