Are you planning to buy an investment property in 2019? Or maybe you’re planning to buy a new home? With Sydney and Melbourne house prices continuing their decline, where should investors be looking to get a good deal in 2019?
Where next for investors: reading the market
In partnership with BIS Shrapnel, QBE released the Australian Housing Outlook 2018-21. The analysis presents an outlook for the performance of the residential market, measured by historical and forecast movement in the median house price and median unit price. Let’s take a look at their outlook for some of the more encouraging regional centres across Australia.
- Newcastle’s role as a logistics hub looks set to continue, which together with improving employment growth, is likely to bolster economic activity in the region and improve market sentiment.
- A number of major non-residential and infrastructure projects will continue to drive employment growth and migration inflows.
- Newcastle’s median house price is expected to grow a cumulative 7% to $635,000 in the three years to June 2021, with potential for further upside if migration from Sydney increases at a greater rate.
- A relatively strong rental market, alongside the recovery in the Tasmanian economy and continued population growth, point to continuing house price growth in the short term.
- By June 2021, Hobart’s median house price is expected to reach $520,000, almost 8% higher than current levels.
- The outlook for Ballarat remains positive with continued benefit from relatively strong non-residential building construction expected over the short term.
- Median house prices are forecast to rise a cumulative 6.9% to reach $385,000 at June 2021.
- In the short term, construction activity in Geelong will be strong, benefiting from a high level of new dwelling and infrastructure activity.
- It’s likely that first home buyers will continue taking advantage of the stamp duty concessions that were a driver of demand in 2017/18.
- Stronger price growth over the forecast horizon will be limited by the recent strong price growth in Geelong and competition from Melbourne’s outer western suburbs.
- Geelong’s median house price is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2018/19 before flattening out over the following two years. By 2020/21, the median price is expected to reach $550,000.
- A thriving tourism industry, and a number of large infrastructure projects, will maintain activity in the building sector and help to drive migration and population growth.
- Price growth is set to continue in 2018/19, but then steadily slow due to a rising supply pipeline.
- The median house price is expected to reach $650,000 by June 2021, representing a cumulative rise of 9% over the next three years.
- Economic growth in the Australian Capital Territory is projected to begin to slow in the 2019 financial year, yet remain above the national average.
- Population growth is expected to remain strong, which will support underlying demand for dwellings.
- Overall, the market is expected to remain close to balance over the next three years, although weak new house building activity would suggest a deficiency of houses.
- With high incomes in Canberra supporting affordability, this is expected to see 10% growth in the median house price over the next three years, to $745,000 by June 2021.
- Continued spill over of population and price growth from Hobart is expected to be felt in Launceston.
- However, the strong median house price growth in Launceston during 2017/18 has decreased its affordability relative to Hobart, and with Hobart prices showing signs of slowing, the recent pace of price growth in Launceston is not expected to continue.
- The median house price in Launceston is forecast to be $350,000 at June 2021, which is a cumulative 9% increase on the June 2017 median.
- Prices remain relatively affordable and the rate of population growth is expected to improve.
- Overall, Adelaide’s median house price is forecast to grow by 12% over the forecast period to reach $555,000 by June 2021, which will be a similar rate of price growth (4% pa on average) to that seen in recent years.
Act now to prepare for new opportunities
As capital city housing prices flatten across the board, it’s the smart investors who’ll take the plunge and invest in the regional hotspots primed for growth. Whether you’re an existing investor or new to property, what you do in 2019 will set the scene for your portfolio over the next decade.